A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
